Friday, June 30, 2017

Learn to live with the cobra


Of late I am thinking quite a bit about the law of "unintended consequences" be it in individual actions or government policies. It appears to me unintended consequences seem to be present everywhere. 

One example was what I gathered from the podcast "Revisionist History". In 1954 the US Supreme court ruled that it was unconstitutional to have racially segregated school which was the practice in some southern states. At that time it was felt that the schools for the black children were at a disadvantage due to lesser funding and were less equipped. The intention was to offer equal opportunities for all children. As a result schools were forced to integrate resulting in the closure of some schools formerly catering for black students. Thousands of black teachers however lost their jobs because white parents were reluctant to have their children under a black teacher. It seems that to this day black and other minority teachers are still under represented in the teaching force.In addition studies have shown that black children do not fare as well under a white teacher than a black teacher, which partly explains decades of poor performance by black students.

Back home our "stop at two" campaign rapidly reduced the fertility rate among the Chinese and the more educated. By 1980 the fertility rate was below replacement level. Since this policy reminds me of LKY, I can not help but wonder how the law of unintended consequences relates to the recent strife in the Lee family. With the best of intention LKY wanted 38 Oxley demolished, but because of this wish, a struggle so intense arose in the first family. Surely it was not a consequence he had envisaged.

Even in our personal lives we would never imagine how certain things turn out. For example we may spur our children to pursue the highest education possible and to chase after their own dreams so as to live a more fulfilling life. The unintended consequence is when they choose to invest time solely in themselves rather than with another person. They develop a insatiable desire to learn and experience more things and simply not prepared to start a family.

Anyway the funniest unintended consequence must be that of the "Cobra effect".
"The British government was concerned about the number of venomous cobra snakes in Delhi. The government therefore offered a bounty for every dead cobra. Initially this was a successful strategy as large numbers of snakes were killed for the reward. Eventually, however, enterprising people began to breed cobras for the income. When the government became aware of this, the reward program was scrapped, causing the cobra breeders to set the now-worthless snakes free. As a result, the wild cobra population further increased. The apparent solution for the problem made the situation even worse."

I guess there will always be the good and bad arising from every action no matter how much prior planning and thorough thinking. If even the most visionary people can not escape from it, we just have to be more zen about it then, ie. learn to live with the cobras.

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