Year of the Tiger

 

On 1 Jan 2022 Sakurai Reiko, NHK World Special Affairs Commentator wrote an article on what to expect in the year of the Tiger. In retrospect though he is not an astrologer he seemed to have made quite apt statements. Describing the tiger as an animal of courage and strength he remarked "policymakers and market players will be hoping it's an omen that the global economy can shake off the effects of the pandemic and roar back to life. In reality, there are other beasts to be tamed first."

Using the abbreviation of the TIGER, he listed these 'other beasts' as:

T- transition between US and China

I- Inflation

G- Global warming

E- Energy cost

R-Balancing Resilience and Recovery from the pandemic

Though he might not have correctly pin pointed the specific beasts, they certainly have turned out to be more beastly and even harder to tame.

The T that needs to be tackled between US/Europe and Russia  (which replaces China for the time being) seems to be unresolvable. Thousands have died and millions displaced.

The magnitude of the I exacerbated by the supply and price shock is felt worldwide and is especially debilitating for vulnerable countries like Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. Efforts to lift millions out of poverty over the decades is crushed.

G which he describes as global warming is as crucial as ever. Delhi recorded the hottest March in 122 years with temperature hitting 43 degree. More of the homeless are expected to die from the heat wave.

E Energy costs has spiraled out of control and a full blown energy war may be looming which will cause severe hardship round the world.

The R which he describes as a balancing act for policymakers between resilience and (economic) recovery certainly is one beast China and HK is treading dangerously. 

Through it all I am reminded of the concept of the "butterfly effect" which suggests that the flap of a butterfly's wings may cause a tornado. What more the acts of maniac rogue politicians. 

Would Sakurai's G include a global food crisis and unrest? Food insecurity has exacerbated from the Ukraine Russian war and will be a dire problem for millions of poverty stricken people in poor developing countries. It is a tragedy in the making in this truly interconnected world. 

 A small act of kindness is known to cast a huge rippling effect. Conversely, an act of aggression such as the Ukraine invasion will have a massive rippling effect affecting millions in the globe. 

As the saying goes "A wounded tiger is a dangerous beast". Perhaps this Tiger year is that of a wounded tiger, an omen of a wounded world.