Unknowns

 

The known knowns, the known unknowns and the unknown unknowns. 

It was comforting to read that even Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger said that it is normal to feel confused about the investment climate during this pandemic. As of now the differing views on whether inflation is going to be temporary or longer term makes one unsure about one's equity/bond portfolio. 

First of all keeping abreast of the known knowns is already taxing enough. For example you thought retail Reits will surely be hit hard with plunge in shopper traffic. Surprisingly enough you read about "trip consolidation" (where shoppers spend more on their less frequent trips to make up for it) and the dichotomy between city and suburban malls. Then you have to keep track of which companies will benefit from WFH and even companies that benefit from changing pastimes and behaviour during the movement restrictions.

An analyst cited the tourism industry as an example of the known unknowns, meaning it will definitely pick up and the only unknown factor is the timing. Perhaps I have begun to lean towards pessimism observing wave after wave of this pandemic all over the world. I begin to lose faith even in the so called known unknowns fearing unforeseen circumstances at every bend. 

This morning I heard news about the melting of the Artic ice reaching the tipping point of irreversible global warming. Also due to climate change a rare late frost has destroyed a third of the harvest in a prestigious French wine producing region. The known unknown is how fast and how bad will the impact of the climate change be. 

Thinking that the potential vengeful recovery of the tourism industry will fast accelerate the impact of climate change, I have a strange idea about the unknown unknowns. Maybe unknown to us some supernatural force has planned this pandemic as a chance for isolation and introspection, for people to rethink their priorities and values. It may also be a wake up call to test the world's preparedness for more severe pandemics to come. It also serves as a reminder of how inter related we are and the importance of  unity among countries.

" We are born from the unknown, journey through the unknown and eventually leave through and to the unknown. It is better to form a conscious relationship with the unknown and let go of the desire to control ( or attachment to ) a specific outcome. "