Be Honest with Yourself

Recently I am reading a book entitled "the art of thinking clearly" by Rolf Dobelli. The author describes in 99 short chapters the common failings of how our mind thinks. I have read only 12 chapters and I can already relate to more than half of the 12 mind warps listed. The following 4 occur for me:

Confirmation Bias:

Seeking information that supports our beliefs and refusing to explore alternative arguments against. Needless to say the most obvious example is my ardent support for the Workers Party (WP) during the election week. I didn't even listen nor read a word uttered by any minister or any incumbent PAP member. Rolf borrowed someone's quote "Murder your darlings" advising us to axe our dear friends (ie. our favourtie beliefs) and find evidences against them to truly evaluate our conviction. Now that the WP has sent 10 members into parliament, I will have to follow Rolf's advice and objectively view their performance.

Sunk Cost Fallacy:

Our mind is heavily influenced by the cost and effort sunk in a project when making decision for the future. This applies frequently to investments and relationship. Many stocks have remained in my portfolio for years because they have not recovered to the purchase price. How ridiculous, had I cut loss long ago and moved on I would definitely have gained better returns. Instead I hope to derive satisfaction when the stock price breaks even. Rolf quoted as a disastrous example the prolonged Vietnam War and the US' reluctance to walk away after so much lives have been sacrificed.

Contrast Effect:

This is a game favoured by marketeers offering discounts like "Used to be $XXX Now $xxx" or "Buy 3 for price of 2". Of late I have been doing a lot of online shopping ranging from Spotlight's curtain fabric to toiletries from Watson. I was feeling pretty satisfied with  my Watson purchases until I saw a similar item selling  even cheaper at CK Dept Store. Similarly I now regret buying a particular piece of curtain fabric at half its usual price compared to another more suitable piece at 20% discount.

Survivourship Bias:

Because success and triumph is more visible than failure, people tend to overestimate their chances of success. In particular this happens in careers that carry a lot of limelight like artists and sports stars. The number of unknown struggling artists is hardly mentioned in public media. As a matter of fact I am in the process of writing a children's book and am recognising this mind flaw  over and over again. Luckily my family members check my unrealistic expectations while still supporting me.  First I find out that I probably have to self publish it. Secondly I realise it is better to print less copies and preserve the environment than leave hundreds of unsold copies gathering dust in the store room.

As Rolf puts it: "Behind every popular author you can find 100 other writers whose books will never sell. Behind them are another 100 who haven't found publishers. Behind them are yet another 100 whose unfinished manuscripts gather dust in drawers. And behind each one of these are 100 who dream of -one day- writing a book".

That is why I have decided to write a children's book where my illustrator can do the major part of the work, livening up my mediocre story; and then I am putting in my money to self publish it. As Rolf says we have to be honest with ourselves.