Wednesday, April 29, 2015

Await an Awakening


I feel it coming intuitively, maybe sometime in the next 10 years, maybe 20 but surely in the next half century. I think it is in the form of some social revolution. Mainly because history has told us that when the privileged ignores the plight of the deprived for too long they will retaliate with pitchforks in arm. It happened in China with the communist takeover, it happened in France with the French revolution, it happened in Russian with the Russian revolution. If the current rich are more far sighted they will not resist tax policies that taxes them more proportionately. These are small losses relative to probable total loss in the long run.

Then there is the huge problem of the present generation robbing the world resources that belonged to future generations.  The huge shifts in climate and extreme weather conditions endanger and will continue to endanger the lives of people in poorer countries less prepared to tackle such changes. The world can not go on depleting the earth's resources just to get satisfaction in possessing that additional consumer product. Maybe the next generation will awaken to this predicament and bring about revolutionary changes to the world's spending habits.

The CEO of BlackRock (world's largest asset management firm) recently spoke of the next Black Swan.
(The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that is rare, hard-to-predict,  beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology).
This is what he believes to be the next black swan: "Global instability through technology that is not able to create jobs fast enough. When we talk about structural unemployment, when we talk about a more fragmented society, when we talk about a society that has greater inequities when it comes to income, it's only going to be accelerating, and much more in the developing world."

My intuitive feel of a black swan is a revolutionary change in the social and value system that will address the great divide between the rich and the deprived and mend fragmented societies. I have a feeling it may give rise to a new era, although in what exact form I do not know, but it may be something like the Renaissance that came after the Dark Ages. Perhaps our children will see this awakening.

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