危机

Today I seem to be in a flux about my investments. This follows a zoom call with a  new fund management company whose directors defected from  XYZ which I have invested in for awhile. Basically the new company's approach is based on growth  momentum which is different from the value investing approach of XYZ. Indeed value investing fund managers have not performed as well as index funds during the last couple of years.

Basically what is reeling in my mind are these questions:

-Should I play safe by having a foot each in both value investing funds and growth investing funds?
-Do I carry out a spring cleaning of my DIY portfolio of equity which is largely concentrated on SGX, cutting loss on stagnated stocks?
-Do I cash out on XYZ due to its below par performance at a time when all analysts advice holding on ?
-Do I liquidate some of my fixed income portfolio to catch the opportunity to pick up some cheap stocks during this crisis?
-Should I contemplate investing in real estate using leverage when interest rate environment is conducive?

-Will there be an imminent market crash as currently there seems to be a misalignment between financial markets and economic reality?
-Will there even be a second or third big wave of Covid 19?
-What if a vaccine is developed soon?

Just too many moving parts and uncertainty. Danger or opportunity?

Or should I just relax and not worry too much about growing money?
And focus on health fueling my hypochondria

Flashes of Optimism

Haha what can I say? I am happy with the Singapore GE 2020 results. Much has been said in social media as well as by political analysts about the drop in support for PAP the incumbent and the root causes.

I am not going to discuss these comments but will just talk about my feelings.

In the last blog just before polling day I was very moody thinking that whatever the outcome will be dark as PAP will either turn more defensive or more arrogant. I said:

"So unless there is more self awareness and more magnanimity by the incumbent party "Darkness Descends on polling day" is the sure outcome."

Quite the contrary I am now less pessimistic. I think the incumbent may now be more open to working with alternative views. First of all a leader of the opposition is appointed which is historical. In addition the young candidates whom the PAP brought in may know what is wanted by the netizens in general and may not just tow party lines if they disagree with policies mooted by the party. In other words there maybe more divergent views even within the PAP.

Personally I am quite awed by the opposition candidates, their never-say-die attitude and sacrifices.In particular I am quite taken away by the news footage of the Workers Party women candidates, dressed in blue blouse, black skirts and black canvas shoes, engaging with people at markets and town centres, always with a slight bow. It was so pleasing to look at. It was also inspiring reading how some opposition candidates patiently fought over several years for this opportunity to speak up in parliament, even at the expense of spending little time with their families.

 This spurs me to think to myself that I should also do more for our society. It prompts me to review  my current volunteer services which have been on hold for some months. I think people generally feel the need to be more united.

In short instead of dark clouds I was struck with flashes of optimism. Surely Singaporeans and  PAP have become more AWARE

How come it ends up like this?

Tomorrow is Cooling Day, one day before polling day in Singapore. No party rallies and campaigns are allowed on this day. I am not sure whether other countries have a mandatory order for people to cool down. That is the nature of our government, it enforces our emotional behaviour as well.

I was awakened by my cat's unusual agitation and aggressive meowing which is far from normal. Well none of us know what exactly she was uptight about since she ignored the food bowl after it was filled. Perhaps she has absorbed some energies from our household or perhaps some collective energies as well. So cooling off is good for her too and for me.

One guy said "Darkness descend on Friday even at nighttime whatever the results"

This is the same view shared by 2 academicians. It does not matter how many seats the PAP will garner. It will be lost trust, lost confidence, lost unity all round.

If the incumbent loses big relative to their target, they will be more insecure and will resort to more defensiveness, more gutter political tactics and less openness to alternative views.

What if the incumbent wins big time. First they will take it as acceptance of their flying solo and hardball political tactics and will continue to do so.

Then there will still be a minority who will be extremely unhappy deepening their disrespect and mistrust of the ruling party. This discontent extends even to those who have no choice but to reluctantly vote for the incumbent for want of a credible opposition in their constituency. Even the PM has admitted that an intensely unhappy minority divides the country. Strangely however he does not really bother to find out why they are so angry and really do something about it.

Voters who succumbed to the blackmail that the incumbent will comprehensively roll out measures to safeguard jobs and manage the crisis only with a strong mandate, will also resent being forced to do so much like paying ransom money for kidnapped victims. A divided society is not what we need at this juncture.

As the 2 academicians put it: "In a highly unpredictable world, decisions must tap on a much wider diversity of ideas than even before". They opined that people might however be turned off by the government's arrogance and self grandiosing ways and refrain from giving input even if sought.

So unless there is more self awareness and more magnanimity by the incumbent party "Darkness Descends on polling day" is the sure outcome.

How did it ends up like this???

This Aunty (PAP critique) is Exhausted

Today is nomination day in Singapore and I shall be rambling because I am feeling peeved.

As usual I try to be more self aware of my feelings and probe into my frustrations with the PAP supporters. How can these people allow rampant bullying by the ruling party of any opposition views year after year through prosecution, changing policies that suit them and controlling the one and only press. I philosophize about the polarisation that is present all over the world. When listening to Buddhist podcast out of California and when anti Trump netizens seek advice on managing their anger against Republicans, the teachers often suggest trying to understand the viewpoint of their opponents.

Now I try to list out the rationale of the PAP supporters:

-For the majority, they are happy with the government providing them reasonable housing, means to provide for their family including some luxuries like vacation, opportunity for college education for their children.
-Happy with the government's performance relative to neighbouring countries and the global recognition it has achieved.
-Why risk any change and rock the boat at the expense of say freedom of speech and expression

Now I list out what PAP supporters think of opposition parties' supporters:

- These people are either naive, ungrateful, discontented in nature or dreamers
- Dreamers, these so called intellectuals, often focus on liberal ideals and forget the practical realities (see the filth and the breakdown of infrastructure and healthcare system in the West)

-------------------------------------------------
Now having explored the views of PAP supporters, I find it difficult to fault them.
Yet I am still frustrated. What is it all about?

Let's not deny it. This so called meritocratic society built through years of Group Think and stifling any alternative views have resulted in a section of the community disadvantaged, and with deeply unequal footing for their children. Lee Hsien Yang puts it very succinctly " Many Singaporean feel they are running a rat race in a maze designed by the Government, which decides who to dispense rewards to. The chosen few are given a nice big slice of cake. For those who are not scholars or generals or privileged, there are only crumbs'. But of course many PAP supporters don't fall into this category. For them why bother?

This Group Think arising from towing the party line in itself is the greatest risk and threat which is kicked down the street. No regime no matter how benevolent and resourceful can last forever. Not addressing this risk is like not bothering to install a fire extinguisher now. In fact to have some balance offering an alternative voice sustains the ruling party longer.

A government with complete power and control has complete responsibility. This patriarchal mode of government has bred a society which depends and makes the government responsible for everything in their life. They are like living in a matrix.

Ok Ok my MAIN peeve at the end of the day is all their bullying tactics, GRC, HDB upgrading schedule, gerrymandering, bankrupting and prosecuting opponents and many more.

Phew... this aunty is exhausted.

Life Essentials

The ongoing expression of frustration and anger in the media by artists and those in the creative industry in response to a survey which ranked artists as the most non-essential job in Singapore sets me thinking.

They asked pertinent questions like where movies, tv dramas, comics, books, music and infographics come from without artists.

Personally I love to watch historical drama. Without the scriptwriters, actors, directors, producers and a host of backstage support personnel, my life will certainly be less enjoyable and more boring. Of more importance, such drama let me reflect not only on history but point out many finer truths in life. Often such realization provide wisdom and occasionally serve as catharsis when I feel dismay or lacking.

After finishing the last season of The Crown in Netflix I have moved onto a few Chinese historical dramas. Currently I am watching "Prince Gong", a China produced TV series which depicts the pain and challenges of a statesman and regent at the end of the Qing Dynasty in China.

In an episode where Prince Gong, brother of the Emperor, had to sign an unequal treaty with the Allied forces after they burnt down the Summer Palace and threatened to march into the Forbidden City, his subordinates beseeched him not to take the burden of blame and accusation of selling the country away. In despair Prince Gong replied that even so it has to be borne.

这骂名 这罪名 您可不能背 

to which he replied  不能背, 也得背

It is a very poignant scene but it reminds us that in life we just have to take things in our stride, a step at a time and manage difficulties as best as we can, even at the expense of self for a larger good,

不能背, 也得背   This phrase carries a very strong message in times of hardship.

Well, Prince Gong would be comforted if he knew that in a century and half later, China will emerge as one of the strongest world power while UK has fallen from its powerful glory as lamented by Queen Elizabeth II in The Crown. Again reflection from watching these shows make one realizes the impermanence of fortune and misfortune.

Coming back to the debate about how essential artists are, it is suffice to say that without them we are just breathing bodies with no life.

Money or Interest in a Job ?

More on jobs and Prof Walter Theseira.

Commenting on the results of a survey carried out on people's perception of jobs, the professor thinks it is hard to separate interest from salary. He opines that people's so called interest in a job may have aligned with the salary and lifestyle it offers.

"As an interviewer for students admissions, I never cease to be amazed by the number of students who sincerely tell me they have always found, say, accounting interesting."

To the good professor, he can not imagine there are people who can find accounting interesting alluding that accountants just work for the money. I have a good laugh and recall the reasons underlying my choice close to forty years ago.

Yes accountancy was my first choice followed by Arts & Social Science I think. I had attended some Book-Keeping classes prior to that and thought it was not a difficult subject. In those days, Accounting graduates can find jobs relatively easier than say an Arts graduate who very often ended up being a teacher. Moreover, though I like History I did not like it as an examination subject and though I was interested in Social Sciences I did not like the pay of Social Workers.  I actually fit into the professor's description.

Thinking back, the way we perceived a job was really quite different from that of our children.  Foremost in our minds was to relieve the financial burden of our parents. Hence a stable and permanent job in the Civil Service, termed as an Iron Rice Bowl, would come as a huge relief to our parents who have struggled to bring up a brood of children.

I think we also didn't place so much significance on job fulfillment as our children. We didn't think of a job as consuming our life. To work is just to earn your keeps and bring home the bacon, that's it. One can find interesting things to do outside work and focus on family life for example. Somehow we are not so ambitious or is it just me. We are prepared to wait it out for that promotion or advancement in job scope. However work environment including affinity with colleagues mattered quite a fair bit. Unlike the millennials few embark on career changes to pursue jobs that are well-suited for their talents and interests.

So for those of us accountants who discovered our interest in Accounting was none other than an interest in getting the money, how did we survive the boredom throughout a lifetime career? I can't really answer this question because mid way I moved on to Treasury,a finance related field. Similarly many accountants too morphed into a more managerial role.

One avid accountant hoping to inspire young entrants says "Accounting is the language businesses speak" just like "language is to writing a book". Well, while I can't muster enough romantic energy to say the same of Accounting, I honestly think some people do have the aptitude and attitude to love writing and reading financial statements that tell all about a company's state of affairs.

As for me, it helped me to achieve the means to retire earlier; and then emulating the millenials try to chase my own dreams.

Dignity in every Job

"Do you think you'll be recruiting in every cohort of Singaporean babies, about 6 to 8 per cent of them into the construction industry? I think realistically, our Singaporean children....want a diversity of jobs, " said Chan Chun Sing, Singapore's Trade and Industry minister. 

I happened to catch this on TV and remember thinking if I am a construction worker I will feel offended. Although he later qualified he didn't mean that nobody wants to go into construction, I think I was a bit put off by his tone and body language which seemed to suggest that it is an unrespectable career. I think this type of attitude from a minister will reinforce the disrespect Singaporeans have for these workers. All these glorified talk about our migrant workers building our homes flew out of the window under a veil of hypocrisy.

Professor Theseira, a NMP said "If we recognise that all work, especially socially essential work, has value, then we need to agree, there is no shame in having Singaporeans take up manual and service jobs." He felt that we should build an economy that is inclusive of skilled and decently paid craftsmen, technicians and service workers.

Entrepreneur Jack Sim (founder of the World Toilet Organisation) in his recent facebook post  described how in 1979 when he was in the construction industry there were very skilled master craftsmen, trained skilled craftsmen and apprentices. The master craftsmen commanded respect for their skill and were paid decent wages.  Today we bring in workers whom he said "have never done a day of construction work". Jack Sim went on to lament that Singapore is now ranked 19th in the world in terms of productivity.

In countries which do not rely on migrant construction workers like Japan their construction workers may indeed be 3 times more productive than our migrant construction workers which our minister is aware of. Their processes in construction is highly efficient.

Chan Chun Sing's remark set me thinking about those Singaporean babies who have little aptitude to get a university education but are skilled in other crafts. They remind me of the children in the Children's Home whom I engage with and who are at a social and educational disadvantage. As the odds are against them many will probably land up doing manual and service jobs. If our craftsmen and service workers are paid decently such jobs will command more respect. These children will take pride in learning the skills they are good at and will gain higher self esteem.

As Prof Theseira puts it "The only shame is if we who have power and influence fail to ensure that the conditions of work and wages in these service jobs are such that Singaporeans find no dignity in taking them up"