危机

Today I seem to be in a flux about my investments. This follows a zoom call with a  new fund management company whose directors defected from  XYZ which I have invested in for awhile. Basically the new company's approach is based on growth  momentum which is different from the value investing approach of XYZ. Indeed value investing fund managers have not performed as well as index funds during the last couple of years.

Basically what is reeling in my mind are these questions:

-Should I play safe by having a foot each in both value investing funds and growth investing funds?
-Do I carry out a spring cleaning of my DIY portfolio of equity which is largely concentrated on SGX, cutting loss on stagnated stocks?
-Do I cash out on XYZ due to its below par performance at a time when all analysts advice holding on ?
-Do I liquidate some of my fixed income portfolio to catch the opportunity to pick up some cheap stocks during this crisis?
-Should I contemplate investing in real estate using leverage when interest rate environment is conducive?

-Will there be an imminent market crash as currently there seems to be a misalignment between financial markets and economic reality?
-Will there even be a second or third big wave of Covid 19?
-What if a vaccine is developed soon?

Just too many moving parts and uncertainty. Danger or opportunity?

Or should I just relax and not worry too much about growing money?
And focus on health fueling my hypochondria

Flashes of Optimism

Haha what can I say? I am happy with the Singapore GE 2020 results. Much has been said in social media as well as by political analysts about the drop in support for PAP the incumbent and the root causes.

I am not going to discuss these comments but will just talk about my feelings.

In the last blog just before polling day I was very moody thinking that whatever the outcome will be dark as PAP will either turn more defensive or more arrogant. I said:

"So unless there is more self awareness and more magnanimity by the incumbent party "Darkness Descends on polling day" is the sure outcome."

Quite the contrary I am now less pessimistic. I think the incumbent may now be more open to working with alternative views. First of all a leader of the opposition is appointed which is historical. In addition the young candidates whom the PAP brought in may know what is wanted by the netizens in general and may not just tow party lines if they disagree with policies mooted by the party. In other words there maybe more divergent views even within the PAP.

Personally I am quite awed by the opposition candidates, their never-say-die attitude and sacrifices.In particular I am quite taken away by the news footage of the Workers Party women candidates, dressed in blue blouse, black skirts and black canvas shoes, engaging with people at markets and town centres, always with a slight bow. It was so pleasing to look at. It was also inspiring reading how some opposition candidates patiently fought over several years for this opportunity to speak up in parliament, even at the expense of spending little time with their families.

 This spurs me to think to myself that I should also do more for our society. It prompts me to review  my current volunteer services which have been on hold for some months. I think people generally feel the need to be more united.

In short instead of dark clouds I was struck with flashes of optimism. Surely Singaporeans and  PAP have become more AWARE

How come it ends up like this?

Tomorrow is Cooling Day, one day before polling day in Singapore. No party rallies and campaigns are allowed on this day. I am not sure whether other countries have a mandatory order for people to cool down. That is the nature of our government, it enforces our emotional behaviour as well.

I was awakened by my cat's unusual agitation and aggressive meowing which is far from normal. Well none of us know what exactly she was uptight about since she ignored the food bowl after it was filled. Perhaps she has absorbed some energies from our household or perhaps some collective energies as well. So cooling off is good for her too and for me.

One guy said "Darkness descend on Friday even at nighttime whatever the results"

This is the same view shared by 2 academicians. It does not matter how many seats the PAP will garner. It will be lost trust, lost confidence, lost unity all round.

If the incumbent loses big relative to their target, they will be more insecure and will resort to more defensiveness, more gutter political tactics and less openness to alternative views.

What if the incumbent wins big time. First they will take it as acceptance of their flying solo and hardball political tactics and will continue to do so.

Then there will still be a minority who will be extremely unhappy deepening their disrespect and mistrust of the ruling party. This discontent extends even to those who have no choice but to reluctantly vote for the incumbent for want of a credible opposition in their constituency. Even the PM has admitted that an intensely unhappy minority divides the country. Strangely however he does not really bother to find out why they are so angry and really do something about it.

Voters who succumbed to the blackmail that the incumbent will comprehensively roll out measures to safeguard jobs and manage the crisis only with a strong mandate, will also resent being forced to do so much like paying ransom money for kidnapped victims. A divided society is not what we need at this juncture.

As the 2 academicians put it: "In a highly unpredictable world, decisions must tap on a much wider diversity of ideas than even before". They opined that people might however be turned off by the government's arrogance and self grandiosing ways and refrain from giving input even if sought.

So unless there is more self awareness and more magnanimity by the incumbent party "Darkness Descends on polling day" is the sure outcome.

How did it ends up like this???